AUD / USD Forecast - January 30 – February 03, 2012

Last week, we projected AUD/USD to reach the 1.0660 level, and that’s what exactly the pair did.

For the sixth consecutive week, the Aussie rose against its US counterpart, climbed another 190 pips to close the week at 1.0657. Although the most of the Australian economic indicators were lower than expected, AUD was helped by the weaker performance of USD. The indicators scheduled to release this week are not in the favors of both Aussie and Greenback. Here is our forecast for the AUDUSD for this week in a technical point of view.

 
Support and Resistance levels for AUD/USD

1.1025 – Strong Resistance (Highest since 1990)
1.0852 – Strong Resistance (2011 Aug, Oct high)
1.0778 – Strong Resistance
1.0733 – Strong Resistance
1.0660 – Weak Resistance
1.0657 – Last Week Close
1.0596 – Weak support
1.0500 – Weak support
1.0375 – Strong support (2011 Dec High)
1.0200 – Strong support
1.0080 – Strong support

We remain Bullish for the pair AUD/USD

Aussie is on a wonderful rally, not even considering the lower-than-expected figures of economic indicators, mainly because weaker performance by USD. We would like to remain bullish for the pair, to reach the 1.0733 level, but we also think it takes a better effort to breach that level. Even the Aussie breach that level, it might not break through the 1.0852 area. So, in brief, AUDUSD, Bullish, may reach 1.0733 but not beyond 1.0852.

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AUD / USD Forecast - January 23 - 27, 2012

Last week, the AUD climbed almost 200 pips against the USD, ending the week at 1.0485. Here are the four indicators scheduled to release in this week, and a brief technical analysis for AUD / USD.

PPI: 23.01.2012, 00:30. This inflation index is very important and published only once every quarter. The index has been falling from April, recording an increase of 0.6% in third quarter. The forecast for Q4 is an increase of 0.4%. 

CB Leading Index: 23.01.2012, 23:00. This combined index is based on seven main economic indicators. The index increased of 0.6%. 

MI Leading Index: 24.01.2012, 23:30. This combined index is based on nine economic indicators. Since April 2009, the worst reading was in November, 2011, a reading of a 0.3% drop. Last month, though, the index rebound, with an increase of 0.1%.

CPI: 25.01.2012, 00:30. Similar to the PPI, this main inflation release has been on a descending trend. The markets are calling for a small increase this month of a 0.2%. 

* All the times are GMT.

AUD / USD Technical Analysis

Last week :
Opened at : 1.0290
Dropped to : 1.0253
Rose aggressively, breach resistance at 1.0400
Climbed to : 1.0488
Closed at : 1.0485

Technical levels for the pair, AUD / USD.

1.0733 - Strong Resistance
1.0660 - Strong Resistance
1.0500 - Strong Resistance
1.0400 - Resistance (Breached last week)
1.0300 - Weak Support
1.0200 - Weak Support
1.0080 - Strong Support
0.9900 - Strong Support
0.9850 - Strong Support
0.9660 - Strong Support


Bullish on AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar had a wonderful week against the USD. AUDUSD is now looking at the 1.0500 level, after last October. On the other hand, Australian employment figures and new motor vehicle sales were losing, showing that consumer confidence is weak. But, in a technical point of view, we think Aussie will aim he 1.0660 level.

AUD / USD Forecast - January 16 - 20, 2012

The AUD rose over 100 pips against the USD, closing above the 1.03 level. The upcoming week is full of activity, with eight indicators being released. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 23:30. The readings for the 3^rd quarter were all close to the zero level, representing basically no inflation. More of the same is likely for the January reading.

ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. Employment ads are a vital indicator of the need for new employees, which is a significant factor for economic growth. The indicator has risen over the past 3 readings, reaching the essential zero level in December. 

Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. This is one of the most vital indicators in the housing sector. The indicator dipped in December to 0.7%, but this was fairly better than the market foretold of 0.1%. The forecast for January is up a little to 1.0%.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 11:30. Consumer confidence indicator fell to -8.3%, its lowest reading since July, 2011. 

New Motor Vehicle Sales: Wednesday 00:30. This is one more important indicator of consumer spending and confidence in the economy. The indicator showed weak figures in the fourth quarter of 2011, with a December reading of -0.7%.

MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday 00:30. This indicator looks at the expectations among consumers as to inflation of goods and services. Slight change is predictable in the reading this month.

Employment Data: Thursday 00:30. The Employment Change indicator is pretty volatile, making correct market forecasts complicated. The reading plunged in December to -6.3K, shattering the markets, which had called for a reading of 10.3K. The market is yet again forecasting a reading of 10.3K. The Unemployment Rate indicator has been very stable at about 5%, and no change is expected for this month.

Import Prices: Friday 00:30. A raise in imports signals additional consumer expenditure and better confidence in the economy. The indicator has fallen in the past two readings, falling to the zero level in December. The market forecast for this month is a small increase to 0.6%.

* All the times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Last week :
Opened at : 1.0199
Dropped to : 1.0145
Climbed to : 1.0378
Closed at : 1.0311

Technical levels from top to bottom:
1.0733 - Strong Resistance
1.0660 - Strong Resistance
1.0450 - Strong Resistance
1.0400 - Strong Resistance
1.0336 - Weak Resistance
1.0200 - Weak Support
1.0080 - Strong Support
0.9890 – Weak Support
0.9810 - Strong Support
0.9660 - Strong Support
0.9500 - Strong Support

Slightly bearish on AUD / USD

The US economy continues to gain steam, which be supposed to push AUD/USD downwards. On the other hand, the AUD has managed to hold its own against the USD in 2012, showing unexpected strength. This is doubtful to continue long-term, as economic fundamentals favor the US economy over that of Australia.

AUD/USD Forecast for 02-06 January, 2012

fx Crunch :


The AUD showed some movement at the end of 2011, dipping close to the parity level before rallying to end the year just shy of the 1.0200 level.  The forthcoming week has four indicators to release. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an restructured technical analysis for Aussie.

The markets may have offer farewell to 2011, but the European debit crisis is still there, and continues to weighs heavily on risk currencies such as the AUD.  Euro / Dollar ended the year 400 pips lesser, and if investors continue to collect to the US dollar for safety, the AUD could decline.

AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 22:30. With only one exclusion, the index has been under 50 from August 2010. This shows that the manufacturing sector is in poor form, and this situation seems position to carry on into 2012.

Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 5:30. Australia’s export sector is very reliant on steady commodity prices, but the indicator has been dipping steadily for 10 straight readings. With a deep worldwide slowdown, this could well go on into 2012.

AIG Services Index: Wednesday, 22:30. The index has been below 50 for the past two readings, indicating reduction in the services sector. The index recorded its fourth successive drop in Decmber, which is undoubtedly a disturbing downtrend. 

Trade Balance: Friday, 00:30. Trade balance statistics have been downstairs for the past three readings. From an October figure of 3.10B, which was the high of the year 2011, the index has fallen sharply to just 1.68B in December. The forecast for the January reading calls for an additional drop, down to 1.60B.

Technical Analysis

Aussie opened the week at 1.0143, and fell to 1.0044, before rallying to break the 1.02 level and mountaineering to 1.0268.  The pair then gave back some of these gains, closing just shy of the 1.02 level, at 1.0197.

Technical levels:
The level of 1.0733, is strong resistance. Next is the round number of 1.0500, which provided support in May and June, and is now a resistance. Below is 1.0450, which was tested in November and is a level of strong resistance.  This is followed by the round number of 1.0400, which is also giving strong resistance. The next line of key resistance is at 1.0336. After helping as an significant line of resistance in December, the level of 1.0200 looks ready to drop very early in the New Year.  The pair did fall to 1.0044 this week, but parity has not confirmed to be much more than a psychological barrier. Next is 0.9890, a weak support line. 0.9810 is now providing strong support to the pair. Strong support for the aussie can be seen at 0.9660, as well as the round number of 0.95, which was violated only once in 2011. The final support level for now is at 0.9376.

Still Neutral on AUD / USD
Economic indicators are undoubtedly stronger in the USA than in Australia, which would favor the USD against the AUD. However, the Aussie rose over parity this week, showing renewed strength and climbing all the way past the 1.02 level.

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